Trotz der aktuellen Wirtschaftskrise in Deutschland hat der Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) am 3. Dezember 2024 erstmals die 20.000-Punkte-Marke überschritten. Der Index stieg um 0,35 Prozent auf 20.003 Punkte, was einem Zuwachs von rund 3.000 Punkten innerhalb eines Jahres entspricht.
Wirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einer Rezession. Im dritten Quartal 2024 wuchs das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) lediglich um 0,1 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Für das Gesamtjahr 2024 prognostiziert die Bundesregierung einen realen Rückgang des BIP um 0,2 Prozent.
Faktoren für den DAX-Anstieg
Trotz der schwachen Konjunktur gibt es mehrere Gründe für den Anstieg des DAX:
- Zinserwartungen: Die Aussicht auf sinkende Leitzinsen in den USA und der Eurozone hat die Attraktivität von Aktien erhöht. Die gesunkene Inflation nährt die Hoffnung auf weitere Zinssenkungen, was die schwächelnde Konjunktur stützen könnte.
- Internationale Einflüsse: Solide Wirtschaftsdaten aus China und politische Instabilitäten in Frankreich haben dazu geführt, dass Investoren verstärkt in den deutschen Markt investieren.
- US-Politik: Die Wahl von Donald Trump zum US-Präsidenten hat Hoffnungen auf ein Ende des Ukraine-Krieges geweckt, was sich positiv auf die Märkte auswirkt.
Expertenmeinungen
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chefvolkswirt der Hamburg Commercial Bank, betont: „Die Rezession in Deutschlands verarbeitendem Gewerbe hat sich im August vertieft, ohne dass eine Erholung in Sicht ist.“
Ausblick
Obwohl der DAX neue Höchststände erreicht, bleibt die wirtschaftliche Lage in Deutschland angespannt. Die Kombination aus strukturellen Herausforderungen und konjunkturellen Schwächen erfordert weiterhin Aufmerksamkei
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